Fractured state
THE list of disappointments runs long while turmoil rips through the highest echelons of power. When it comes to the mess the country faces, no one is above blame — neither the government, nor the opposition; neither the executive, nor the ‘establishment’; and, lastly, not the judiciary or the two factions it has divided itself into.
We have a verdict — the right one though rendered controversial because of the debatable composition of the bench — from the highest court, yet, nobody truly believes it will be implemented.
The legislature and executive have made it clear they will not listen to the judiciary, and the judiciary has made it clear it is not interested in listening to anyone at all.
Within the judiciary, a smouldering civil war threatens to turn into a blazing inferno, with both factions one-upping each other with tit-for-tat power moves. Watching their struggle unfold is like witnessing one’s elders fight — horrifying and pitiable.
Is this the end of the Pakistan we have known? Is this the Götzen-Dämmerung — the twilight of our false idols? The wise and powerful have fallen off their high pedestals. Those once considered ‘national leaders’ appear bereft of ideas and helpless against the vortices sucking the country towards a dark void.
Be they judges, generals, bureaucrats or politicians — all are so consumed by their selfish power struggles that they seem not to care that Armageddon is almost upon us. Meanwhile, the people are being frog-marched to their doom as they pray desperately for a saviour to appear.
It is difficult to escape these troubling contemplations amidst the madness that has gripped the country lately. It is not that there is no solution. But it lies — has always lain — in the hands of those responsible for the current situation. The judiciary must immediately begin a rapprochement between its bickering factions.
The judges must work out their differences and agree to disagree while remaining within the bounds of reason and respectability. The PDM government, especially the PML-N, must put a stop to its confrontation with the judiciary.
It is missing the forest for the trees: friendly judges are not going to elect it to power, the people will, and those people are right now crying from hunger and destitution, not judicial overreach. The PTI must stop its ceaseless confrontations and give dialogue a chance.
It must stop prevaricating and provide a clear promise that it is willing to sit down and find a way out, even if it means making difficult sacrifices or compromises. Lastly, the military establishment must steer clear of political meddling and let the others find a way out.
There may yet be time to steer the country away from total disaster, but that can only happen once the powerful agree that the powerless have suffered enough.
Published in Dawn, April 6th, 2023
A bleak picture
THOSE who think the latest round of monetary tightening by the State Bank will restrain the soaring price inflation or bring us closer to the long-awaited staff-level agreement with the IMF are mistaken. Economists believe that the high inflation in Pakistan is not being driven by a large current account deficit or growth in money supply, but is being fuelled primarily by government policies, such as the imposition of unprecedented curbs on imports, that have brought economic activity to a grinding halt over the last several months. Another major factor feeding into price inflation is the constant erosion of business and public confidence in the capability of the country’s present economic managers to contain the rot, let alone reverse it, as is evident in the public’s expectations of further currency depreciation. The central bank’s decision to hike the benchmark policy rate by 1pc to 21pc on Tuesday will have only as much impact on the rapidly surging prices as previous rounds of monetary tightening did, extending the period of stagflation — a combination of high inflation and economic stagnation. Little wonder the World Bank has projected in a new report that GDP growth will massively decline to 0.4pc this year. The ADB is a bit more optimistic: it expects Pakistan to grow by 0.6pc, projecting average inflation to balloon to 27.5pc.
With the economy in a tailspin, the World Bank has warned that the “country’s outlook is subject to major downside risks, which, if they materialise, could result in a macroeconomic crisis”. The risks include non-completion of the IMF programme, and failure to secure expected rollovers, refinancing, and new financing from key bilateral partners. Unfortunately, the ongoing political instability has amplified these risks in recent months as neither the IMF nor potential bilateral lenders appear to be in a mood to extend help unless we put our house in order. Few care that 4m Pakistanis fell below the poverty line last year, or that the people are ready to risk their own and their children’s lives for free meals and ration. The rate hikes may be needed, but these are no longer enough to control inflation or stabilise the economy. The question now is whether our politicians and other stakeholders have what it takes to rise above their political wrangling and focus on restoring the world’s confidence in the country.
Published in Dawn, April 6th, 2023
Thar’s water concerns
SINDH’S Thar region is one of the least developed parts of Pakistan, known both for its stunning desert beauty and its people’s struggles with drought and malnutrition. Over the past few years, Thar has also been associated with coal projects, which have been touted as a major remedy for Pakistan’s energy woes. However, while Thar’s coal deposits are considerable, controversy has continued to dog the mining process, with activists and locals blaming mining firms for not adhering to environmental standards, and polluting the area’s natural resources. On Tuesday, activists from Thar held a press conference in Karachi claiming that as per a recent study, excessive levels of toxic metals linked to coal-mining activity had been found in drinking water, resulting in the ‘poisoning’ of water sources. They claimed that due to high levels of arsenic, mercury, lead and other toxic substances, local people were suffering from health problems, while ‘toxic’ water was not being properly treated. This is not the first time such claims have emerged. In the past, too, there have been major protests linked to the Gorano reservoir, with claims that a mining firm was dumping poisonous water into it, while activists have also alleged that mining activity has negatively affected air quality levels in Thar. The mining firm has said claims about the Gorano issue are “incorrect and misleading”.
The fact is that when the health of hundreds of thousands of people is in question, claims about grave environmental pollution cannot be brushed aside. One extreme suggestion is that all development activity be ceased, while the other completely ignores the legitimate concerns of the local people. Local communities’ concerns must be adequately addressed by independent environmental experts. The Sindh government, which itself is involved in coal extraction there, must take the lead and look into the concerns. While mining is important for the national economy, environmental safeguards are needed to protect natural resources, particularly drinking water.
Published in Dawn, April 6th, 2023