Shifting blame
AS Pakistan sees a resurgence of terrorism, with deadly attacks on law-enforcement personnel taking place practically every other day, PTI chairman Imran Khan has said that the army was on board when the decision to enter into negotiations with the outlawed TTP was taken during his rule. Not too long ago, the army distanced itself from the talks, saying that the decision had been taken by the [PTI] government. It is no secret that Mr Khan for years has supported talks with the militants and has often criticised ‘military solutions’ to the terrorist threat. In fact, when Pakistan was hit hard by terrorist attacks from 2007 to 2014, Mr Khan, who was not prime minister at that time, had criticised the military action and had insisted that negotiating with the TTP, which is responsible for tens of thousands of deaths in the country, was the best option. In 2013, he even suggested that the outlawed group open offices in the country in order to start the process of engaging with political parties. So, it is no surprise that when he was PM, Mr Khan’s government initiated talks with the TTP. Given his consistent public position on the matter, his attempt to deflect blame is questionable. This is not to absolve the security establishment that has pursued a chaotic, ambiguous policy in dealing with militant groups. But it has also undertaken several operations that weakened the terrorist networks.
The truth is that Pakistan finds itself trapped in another wave of violence because both the politicians and the security establishment have made mistakes. All those who have stayed silent, or made excuses for terrorism, or exhibited sympathetic feelings for dangerous groups must take responsibility. However, there is no time now for blame games. Pakistan needs a cohesive anti-terror policy with no room for confusion, double games or sympathy. Collective action by the military, the politicians and society is necessary to eliminate the menace.
Published in Dawn, May 6th, 2023
Kurram bloodshed
THE Kurram tribal district of KP has witnessed far too many incidents of vicious bloodletting over the years. In this sensitive region of the country, sectarian and tribal disputes can coalesce into ugly communal confrontations, while the area’s proximity to Afghanistan has made it vulnerable to the spill-over of geopolitical events in that country. The area has also suffered from intense militant violence. The events of Thursday illustrate just how easily Kurram’s fragile peace can be shattered. At least eight people were killed in two separate but connected attacks; in the first incident, an individual was gunned down in the Shalozan area, and in apparent retaliation, an armed mob killed seven people, mostly teachers, at a school in Teri Mangal. Protests, led by teachers, were held in Parachinar on Friday, with demonstrators calling for justice for their slain colleagues. The authorities insist that a land dispute dating back to the 1950s was the cause of the incidents. While that may be correct, as stated above, tribal and sectarian disputes often merge in Kurram, which is why it is essential to defuse tensions before they spread to other sensitive areas such as Orakzai, Hangu etc.
The first priority for the state must be to track down and punish those responsible for these reprehensible killings. While all violence is condemnable, the fact that educators were so mercilessly targeted is particularly painful. The state needs to keep in mind the blood-soaked history of the area and act with alacrity. Kurram and its neighbouring areas witnessed intense violence between 2007 and 2011. It should be remembered that terrorists had blocked the Thall-Parachinar road for nearly four years, effectively laying siege to the area and forcing local people to make the perilous journey through Afghanistan to reach the rest of the country. Thousands had been killed and injured during this cycle of violence, while hundreds of thousands had been internally displaced. Thankfully, the area has witnessed relative calm for around a decade, though there have been sporadic disturbances linked to militancy after the TTP restarted their activities last year. The state must make every effort to prevent Kurram from slipping back into the vortex of sectarian/tribal bloodshed. Tribal elders, ulema and officials must together spearhead efforts to keep the peace, and prevent the latest outrage from spiralling out of control, while sectarian hatemongers must be dealt with decisively.
Published in Dawn, May 6th, 2023
New IMF hurdle
SINCE February when ‘formal’ talks resumed between Pakistan and the IMF for the completion of the ninth review of the lender’s stalled $6.5bn funding programme, it has been a ‘one step forward, two steps back’ situation for the coalition government. Every time the elusive deal seems within reach, a new hurdle crops up.
Now the IMF says it is preparing to discuss Pakistan’s budget plans for the coming financial year “as part of a process to unlock a crucial financing injection”.
This is being seen as a fresh obstacle to the release of the pending bailout funds amounting to $2.6bn. Thus, many are assuming that the programme will remain in limbo at least until the next budget is passed.
The new condition isn’t surprising, considering that Pakistan must hold general elections in October and PML-N ministers are already appearing on TV to assure inflation-stricken party voters of a major ‘relief’. The lender would not want the government to take its dollars and spend the money to win the elections. We know how all fiscal discretion is abandoned in the attempt to win votes.
The IMF deal is crucial for tackling our severe balance-of-payments crisis, and avoiding default and potentially difficult debt restructuring. Without a staff-level agreement for the held-up $1.1bn tranche since November, foreign exchange reserves have declined to $4.5bn — just enough for a month of controlled imports.
According to Fitch Ratings, the country faces a total of $3.7bn of debt payments in the next two months till the end of June. About $700m in maturities are due in May and $3bn in June.
Fitch expects $2.4bn of the deposits and loans from China to be rolled over, reducing some pressure on the reserves. But it will be folly to expect China to lessen the burden so easily.
Pakistan has already taken all the agreed steps to unlock the funding, with external financing remaining the last hurdle. It is required to give an assurance that its “balance-of-payments deficit is fully financed for the fiscal year ending” to secure the next tranche.
Despite assistance from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and China, the financing gap of up to $2bn remains. Further, the IMF seems averse to combining the remaining two reviews with the ninth review and release the entire amount at one go to keep the fiscal authorities in check. This is in spite of the fact that the present facility will end in June.
The new conditions and the refusal to combine the reviews reflect the widening trust gap, which is not surprising considering the multiple deviations from the programme in the last four years. Pakistan will need another IMF programme once this one ends. For that, Islamabad needs to bridge the trust gap with the lender.
Published in Dawn, May 6th, 2023