Coming undone
THE PDM government would like nothing better than for the nation to forget that the only reason it has been avoiding turning to the people for a vote of confidence is because of how catastrophically Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has mismanaged the economy during perhaps the worst crisis in Pakistan’s history.
With the nation’s attention these days firmly affixed to the escalating rhetoric from one branch of the state against another, a globally respected economist has issued the stern warning that the country’s economy has almost come undone.
Princeton University professor Atif Mian, a Pakistani-American widely regarded as among the top economists of our times, recently shared his deeply worrying analyses of Pakistan’s trajectory on Twitter.
In his words, recent data suggests that the Pakistani economy is “unhinged” and has gone “off the rails” after losing the confidence of its key stakeholders.
Dr Mian describes ‘providing confidence’ as one of the most important aspects of policymaking, as it ensures that people will remain willing to invest in the country and enable a better future.
He surmises that this confidence is now missing in Pakistan’s economy because of what he describes as a breakdown of Pakistan’s “nervous system” — “that combination of administrative and political structures that guarantee a certain level of confidence in the economy”.
The professor says that supply-side disruptions caused by Islamabad’s prolonged failure to secure an IMF agreement, Mr Dar’s problematic fixation on the exchange rate while reserves were declining, and his highly constrictive import policies have lost the country its credibility by engendering a “feeling that either nobody is in charge, or those in power have no idea what they are doing”.
With both exports and imports declining at much sharper rates compared to regional economies, inflation “off the charts, and extremely dangerous”, and the government in no position to control the exchange rate, Pakistan has reached a critical juncture. It desperately needs to rebuild “a functioning nervous system”, the economist has urged — yet no one appears to be paying any attention.
The government remains focused on clinging to power for as long as it can. It has continued to put off the politically difficult, yet desperately needed restructuring of Pakistan’s economy.
The “selfish power grabs” that Dr Mian has criticised for bringing the country to this point only threaten to get worse with the fresh stand-off between the judiciary and legislature.
The question arises: does our power elite really care for Pakistan? Do our judges, politicians, and generals realise that the country is being impoverished as its capital and human resources flee to safer and more stable destinations? It may take decades for the country to recover from the destruction they have caused — that, too, only if the ongoing slide is arrested. When will they be ready to rebuild?
Published in Dawn, April 7th, 2023
Overt racism
BRITISH Home Secretary Suella Braverman seems to have achieved quite a feat — that of being a non-white person with overtly racist views. Speaking on a recent television interview about the government’s plans to tackle child sexual abuse, she said “vulnerable, white English girls” were being preyed upon by “gangs of British-Pakistani men”. When the presenter referred to a Home Office report of 2020 which found that group-based sex offenders were predominantly white, Ms Braverman doubled down on her contention, saying “British-Pakistani males hold cultural values at odds with British values”. Her remarks, in the wake of the Tory government’s avowed aim to get tough on child sexual exploitation, have been roundly criticised. Political commentators decried them as “inflammatory” and a trigger for “race wars”; some accused her of indulging in ‘dog whistle’ politics in the name of no-tolerance for ‘political correctness’. Indeed, the home secretary’s words must be music to the ears of the most vile racists in the UK and elsewhere, resuscitating as they do the trope of the violent and sexually out of control black man.
The 2020 report referred to above said that while the perpetrators in a number of high-profile cases of child sexual abuse by gangs have mainly involved men of Pakistani ethnicity, there are “significant limitations to what can be said about links between ethnicity and this form of offending”. Among these cases was the horrific one in which more than 1,400 children were sexually exploited in the town of Rotherham over a period of 16 years; seven Pakistani-British men in that instance were convicted of a series of sexual offences against young girls. Interestingly, a 2015 report that also examined the Rotherham case found there were victims of “Pakistani-heritage” who did not necessarily report being sexually abused as they feared “it would affect their future marriage prospects”. Looking at crime through an ethnic lens distorts the picture. It also shifts the focus from the crime and demonises an entire community. As UK’s former chief prosecutor Nazir Afzal posted, “Suella Braverman knows that 84pc of child sex offenders are white British, but chooses to focus on those that are not”. Indeed, 13 men appeared in a UK courtroom on Tuesday charged with more than 50 child grooming sex offences. None of them are non-white. Ms Braverman’s views have everything to do with xenophobia, not fact.
Published in Dawn, April 7th, 2023
Keamari gas deaths
ILLEGAL industrial concerns located in congested residential areas present a clear danger to human health and well-being. However, civic authorities appear oblivious to the hazards industries dealing with potentially toxic materials pose to the people living around them, as the mushroom growth of such concerns in populated areas shows. This is especially true in the nation’s major cities such as Karachi and Lahore, where despite the occurrence of numerous deadly accidents, the state remains unmoved. One particularly tragic case involved the deaths of at least 18 individuals, mostly children, in Karachi’s Keamari area in January. While it was initially being suggested by some quarters that the deaths could be linked to measles, a medical board constituted by the Sindh health department has concluded that the fatalities were caused by toxic gases released by nearby industrial units. The report says that fatalities started occurring after a “plastic burning factory” opened in the area in early January, and stopped after the establishment was shut down.
Thanks to the massive unplanned growth and urban sprawl, the distinction between residential, commercial and industrial areas has disappeared in most of our cities. Therefore, it is not unusual to spot industrial concerns using hazardous chemicals and emitting toxic gases located right next to densely populated settlements. This results in deaths as well as long-term health perils for those unfortunate enough to live in such areas. The state — including the health and industries departments, local administration and the police — is conspicuous by its absence, mostly because the victims are poor and voiceless. This reality needs to change. As the report probing the Keamari deaths has noted, industrial activities in residential areas need to be stopped, restricted or removed. While this is a challenging task, at least those units dealing with hazardous material must be immediately relocated, while in future, land use and urban planning principles must be respected so that dangerous industries are located far from populous neighbourhoods.
Published in Dawn, April 7th, 2023