Assurances to IMF
With the finance minister taking a back seat in recent days, it does not exactly inspire confidence that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif himself has had to step forward and extend assurances to the IMF regarding Pakistan’s intent with regard to resuming the Extended Fund Facility.
It is unclear whether Islamabad has finally realised the gravity of the crisis it is in, which is only going to get exponentially worse if Q Block’s assurances regarding forthcoming aid from friendly countries fail to materialise soon.
After PM Shehbaz recently spoke to the IMF managing director and “[…] told her about the government’s resolve to complete the terms of IMF’s programme,” a delegation from the lender has agreed to meet Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on the sidelines of the International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan, being hosted in Geneva on Jan 9 (today), to “discuss outstanding issues”.
The IMF programme had been brought back on track just a few months ago, and only after the previous finance minister convinced the cabinet to take several difficult decisions to re-order the country’s fiscal priorities. However, it stalled once again after Miftah Ismail was shown the door and replaced with the incumbent, Ishaq Dar.
Mr Dar proceeded to greatly complicate matters by making statements like: “I won’t take dictation from the IMF” and “I don’t care if they [IMF officials] come [for the 9th review]. I don’t have to plead before them.” The ninth review was subsequently delayed and, mere months later, the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves have depleted to just enough for less than a month’s worth of imports.
Islamabad is increasingly feeling the pressure as foreign debt repayments become due: industries that are dependent on imported inputs have been facing immense difficulties as banks either delay or refuse to issue letters of credit, leading to shortages of essential and even lifesaving items.
For the prime minister to personally step in after his finance minister has refused to budge for months on the action plan tabled by the IMF shows that the PML-N leadership remains divided on what its strategy should be. It is unlikely in such a situation that the IMF will take the prime minister’s assurances favourably, especially given the lender’s experience with Pakistan, where, on more than one occasion over the past twelve months, one person has made assurances to get the bailout programme back on track, but has then been replaced or undercut by another with completely different plans.
Resuming the IMF programme is certainly not all there is to Pakistan’s current economic troubles, but getting it back on track is key to unlocking other much-needed sources of financing. The PML-N must get its act together and decide who will be calling the shots. Its leadership’s indecision over which line of action to follow has already cost the government its credibility.
Published in Dawn, January 9th, 2023
GB protests
MASSIVE protests held across Gilgit-Baltistan over the past several days have united the region’s geographically and religiously diverse communities, as well as supporters of different political parties. Moreover, traders’ bodies in the northern region have also backed the demonstrations. GB’s people have taken to the streets in freezing temperatures for a raft of reasons, which include questions about land rights, taxation, extensive power cuts as well as a reduction in the amount of subsidised wheat the centre provides the region. The fact is that GB’s residents are protesting about many of the same things people in other parts of Pakistan also raise their voices against. However, GB’s ambiguous constitutional status, as well as the lack of infrastructure compared to the rest of the country, makes this region’s plight unique. The protesters are not in favour of the GB Revenue Authority Bill, which was passed by the region’s assembly last year, as they say it imposes additional taxes on the region without giving it any representation in the federation. Moreover, the locals also have serious reservations about the state taking over land in the region that they say belongs to the people. The state has been acquiring land in GB for CPEC as well as other projects.
Considering that the people of GB have united over these issues, the state has to engage with them, listen to their concerns and arrive at mutually agreed solutions. Ramming ‘solutions’ down the people’s throats will only aggravate matters. The local people have a valid point where it comes to additional taxation. If the state is extracting revenue from the region, then it also has a responsibility to provide elected representation for GB in parliament. Of course, the constitutional status of the region has been kept vague due to the Kashmir dispute, but as has been argued in the past, a provisional provincial status can be considered for GB until that imbroglio is resolved. Coming to the land issue, this is a very sensitive matter and only through engaging with the local people politically can it be resolved amicably. While the state has a right to acquire land it feels is essential in the national interest, the people need to be taken on board and compensated accordingly, and no forced takeovers of land should take place. It is hoped that representatives of the government engage with the people of GB and resolve these issues in a democratic fashion.
Published in Dawn, January 9th, 2023
Sordid claims
WOMEN are cannon fodder in a chauvinistic society where a toxic political environment has erased the distinction between legitimate criticism and smear campaigns. Recently, a retired major levelled scurrilous allegations in a YouTube video to the effect that four Pakistani actresses had been deployed by the military top brass as ‘honey pots’ to lure politicians into discreetly filmed encounters that could be used to blackmail them. “…Model girls in safe houses and Mess. Politics of spying and immoral videos” he tweeted as an introduction to the video. He then proceeded to give the initials of the showbiz personalities he claimed were part of this plot. Within minutes, Twitter was awash in speculation about who fit the bill; with names, memes and derogatory comments being bandied about in a salacious feeding frenzy. The officer, Adil Raja, has been a diehard supporter of the PTI and since April has reportedly been based in London after developing serious differences with the army leadership over his political views. In the ugly, take-no-prisoners political environment in Pakistan, women and indeed femininity itself are convenient targets, instruments to demean the opposition and emasculate the men within it.
However, the double standards that are part and parcel of patriarchal societies ensure that the impact on the women involved (or assumed to be involved) in such controversies is far more profound and long-term than the price paid by their male counterparts. The whiff of scandal, of moral turpitude, dogs the former relentlessly, dredged up whenever they need to be ‘cut down to size’. We have seen this happen repeatedly to women journalists in particular in recent years whenever they have expressed an opinion unpopular with social media trolls. The trend underscores how the public space is essentially seen as a male domain, with females merely interlopers existing on sufferance. Some of the women presumed to be part of the honey trap claim have vigorously denounced the allegations. They must be supported by all right-thinking men and women across the political spectrum.
Published in Dawn, January 9th, 2023