MUCH remains unchanged in the country. Elite capture of the state, the military’s long shadow over politics, poor governance, an oligarchical ruling elite’s reliance on bailouts and borrowing to address the country’s chronic financial imbalances, little effort to tackle structural economic problems and lack of investment in human capital.
All of these have consequences for the country’s fate and fortunes.
But socioeconomic changes over the years have also been reshaping the country’s landscape. Some changes have been positive while others have created new challenges. Several developments offer an opportunity for transformation, but others and long-standing fault lines act as a constraint and barrier to change, holding the country back. Some trends are harbingers of instability. Of course, these are not the only trends in evidence but ones that appear more consequential in the present context.
A positive trend is the rise of a larger middle class which has the potential to change the relationship between the state and citizens as members of this social group have different expectations of governance. Although Pakistani scholars differ on the size of the middle class, there is little dispute that it has grown significantly in the past two decades or more.
Studies show it has increased fourfold since 2000 as poverty has declined. It has grown both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of the population. Its growth has also been fuelled by higher remittances from overseas Pakistanis. Expansion of the middle class has to be seen in the context of greater urbanisation. According to the 2023 census almost 40 per cent of the population live in urban areas — a significant increase from the previous 2017 census. Research shows the size of the middle class has tripled in urban areas and in Punjab and Sindh.
The urban middle class is a potentially influential economic and social group that is now politically engaged and wants a bigger voice in national affairs. While not homogenous, it includes educated, professional, salaried people as well as middle-income employees in state and private business enterprises.
Members of the middle class are becoming more assertive in voicing their aspirations for competent governance based on meritocracy and a political system that serves the public good and is not driven by patronage. To be an agent for change, they need, however, to act in an organised way and a political vehicle to mobilise them.
Only a visionary and reformist leadership can seize opportunities and deliver competent governance.
Digital technology has also transformed the national landscape and people’s lives. Information and communication technology has created a more ‘connected’ society and made citizens better informed and more aware of their rights. Smartphone users are at an all-time high. The number of internet users is now over 110 million with around 71m social media users.
Most people today have access to greater information and are more engaged with national affairs. This is changing how people assess governments and what they want from them. Digital technology has also emerged as an effective vehicle for political mobilisation and expression of dissent. It is this that has prompted the authorities to crack down on digital space by new regulations or laws and impose internet curbs.
Like elsewhere, in Pakistan too digital technology can act as a force multiplier and power positive developments — empowering people, advancing knowledge and transforming society in many ways. It has fuelled social and economic progress across the world and can play a similar role in Pakistan’s future development trajectory. A 2024 UNDP report depicted digital technology as a transformative and democratising force for Pakistan, “capable of bridging the gap between existing human development deficits and a future of prosperity and growth”.
That brings up the human development deficit in education. This is a persisting negative trend that is a huge constraint on the country’s economic progress and chances of political transformation. No issue is more consequential for Pakistan’s future than the coverage and quality of education. Yet underinvestment in education has meant 40pc of Pakistanis are still illiterate while 26m school-age children are out of school — the world’s second highest number. Among those who go to school, learning poverty remains high. Pakistan obviously cannot achieve economic growth and progress by failing to invest in its people.
Given Pakistan’s youthful demographic profile the education deficit has even more troubling implications. Over two-thirds of the population are below the age of 30. That means the young will determine the country’s future trajectory. But if they are not educated and employment is not available to them, they face a hopeless and jobless future, which will blight the country’s prospects.
To reap the demographic dividend, Pakistan has to educate the young and equip them with skills. The youth bulge offers a huge opportunity for accelerated economic growth if the country makes the needed investment in human capital. If it fails to do so, then a demographic disaster awaits with obvious implications for social stability.
These challenges have remained unaddressed because the narrow power elite that dominates and controls the country’s political system is more interested in serving its own interests and perpetuating the status quo than promoting the public welfare. This has been the biggest barrier to change.
The power elite, constituted by both political and military elites, has resisted meaningful reform and focused on short-term goals for its political survival and to preserve its ascendancy. Politics and governance in this elite-dominated system is more about leveraging the spoils system and using patronage to reward supporters than framing public policies.
Political contests are rarely about issues, but reflect a tussle for power between dynastic political parties and other political groups that are extensions of personalities. None of this can deliver competent governance.
How in the face of these impediments can the positive developments mentioned above be harnessed to steer the country towards a better future? By a leadership that believes in change and reform and is committed to transforming the country’s governance into one aimed at promoting the public welfare rather than protecting the privileges of the elite.
Only a visionary leadership willing to take risks and unafraid of opposition from entrenched elites can seize opportunities and surmount hurdles to make Pakistan into a country its people want and deserve.
The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.
Published in Dawn, February 24th, 2025
Source:https://www.dawn.com/news/1893980/drivers-of-change