WFall of Assad: HTS Rebels Reshape Syria’s Future – Agha Zuhaib Khan. Since 1961, the Assad Dynasty had appeared to maintain an iron grip over Syria for half a century, supported by a powerful security apparatus with brutal force use, powerful allies like Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, and numerous uprisings and civil war.
Over this time period there were numerous uprisings and an increasingly bloody civil war, in which thousands were killed; over time control over large areas was lost to opposition groups; but recently Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who had been disqualified and sanctioned from regional and international diplomacy gained some of his respectability after being reinstated back into regional and international diplomacy by Arab League reinstatement despite some sanctions relief talks; some observers even spoke in favor of relaxing sanctions to allow some relief in terms of respectability regained some respectability when his country had been reinstated back into Arab League membership along with talk of relief from sanctions relief measures against him regained some respectability.
When Arab League reinstated Syria and there was talk of relief from sanctions relief relief pending upon him, gained some respectability when its membership reinstated back by Arab League reinstatement along with possible relief from sanctions imposed upon him being disqualified and sanctioned since 2011 by being reinstated back into Arab League membership and some relief being applied on him from certain sanctions related upon him due to such reinstatement from sanctions being removed upon him from international diplomacy after reinstated and sanctions relief on him being reinstated due to changes that came about due to being reinstated and sanction relief being put upon.
At its core, the government was nothing more than a deck of cards; quickly disintegrating under attack by Islamist rebels of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), also known as the Syrian Liberation Group. Within days, HTS swiftly overthrew Damascus and Russia announced that President Bashar Assad had fled Moscow for refuge while his former premier transferred power at Four Seasons Damascus hotel – all without bloodshed! This transition took less than two weeks with no fatalities sustained throughout conflict. Fall of Assad: HTS Rebels Reshape Syria’s Future – Agha Zuhaib Khan
However, to maintain their own equilibrium they often turn to alcohol or illegal substances for support. Israel’s violent attack against Syria allies Hezbollah, including its destruction of a large portion of their missile arsenal, coincided with a dramatic series of events which allowed HTS to overthrow their regime, such as Israel’s decapitation, as well as Iran’s diminishing influence after losing Hezbollah as part of their “forward defense,” rupture of reconciliation negotiations between Ankara and Damascus, unpaid military wages that demoralized military morale, as well as Russia’s unwillingness to address war it had started in Ukraine. HTS offensive seems initially supported by Turkey who had long protected rebel stronghold of Idlib located northwest Syria but ultimately it became independent Syrian campaign initiated from within.
Spontaneous Uprisings and the Collapse of Assad’s Strongholds
On November 30th, HTS rebels appeared suddenly from nowhere and overran Syria’s second city Aleppo within 24 hours, proceeding south towards Damascus and Damascus itself. As part of their plan, they launched a series of spontaneous uprisings against the regime in Sweida and Daraa in southern Lebanon; Deir ez-Zor was later added. On December 5, they captured Hama, Syria’s fourth-largest capital, followed two days later by Homs, its third-largest city. Location of Damascus and Alawite Mountains of Syria in proximity. As rebel ferocity combined with diminished support was too great, government could no longer withstand it.
Rebel forces’ pursuit of Damascus brought an international civil conflict to a temporary conclusion without foreign involvement, without any external interference or military support from outside. At the end of the day, Syrian cities that had endured years of brutal bombardment from both regime supporters and Hezbollah forces–such as Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah– were taken over by rebel forces. The Syrian rebellion marks an immense transformation of the Middle East that leaves major international and regional powers uncertain as to their appropriate responses. Recently, Biden administration officials revealed to Reuters that they are working closely with the United Arab Emirates in an effort to lift sanctions against Syria in exchange for President Assad removing Iran and stopping Hezbollah arms shipments, according to multiple sources who spoke with Reuters. Fall of Assad: HTS Rebels Reshape Syria’s Future – Agha Zuhaib Khan
However, the fall of Assad serves as a stark reminder of how interdependent and unpredictable regional conflicts can be, and what might result when ignored or taken for granted as normal – both Israel’s conflict with Palestine as well as Syria’s civil war were examples of such results. Israel and Palestinians found themselves locked in conflict after an attack from Hamas on October 7, triggering Israel to declare war in Gaza while Houthi rebels launched their campaign in Red Sea while war was also declared against Lebanon and Iran as well. Syria was rocked by another earthquake on Saturday, further upending its fragile current order and showing how irresponsible it would be to ignore long-running Middle Eastern conflicts for the sake of maintaining unsustainable status quos.
While much is yet unknown as far as how HTS will manage the country and whether or not it can confront competing groups for influence; with Assad gone, regional power will surely change dramatically.
The rebel offensive against Bashar al-Assad stems from Syria’s civil war which began in 2011 but continues today. As part of the Arab Spring uprisings, Syrian citizens had peacefully participated in demonstrations during which regime violence caused some protesters to join the army or rebel forces and join in their ranks. As the war grew more brutal, extremist groups such as al al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and its offshoot Islamic State (also known as ISIS) proliferated. War quickly escalated into an international conflict as Iran, Gulf States countries, Russia, Turkey and the US shipped weapons and money directly to their preferred armed groups.
However, Iran and Russia as allies of Assad proved more committed than expected. Iranian militias–Hezbollah included–aided him in attacking and occupying his own citizens while Russia used their Sukhoi fighter jets to devastate entire cities. With their assistance, it is estimated that the regime killed more than half a million of its own citizens, disappeared 130,000 people, and caused nearly half of all 14 million population displacements to relocate themselves within its borders. At the end of each day, UN has stopped counting the dead. Fall of Assad: HTS Rebels Reshape Syria’s Future – Agha Zuhaib Khan
The World War had far-reaching international ramifications. The arrival of over 1 million Syrian refugees into Europe in 2015 resulted in the rise of extreme right-wing political parties across a number of European nations, prompting governments to strengthen ties with dictatorial leaders like Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey and Tunisia Presidency Kais Saied to stem refugee flows. Many parties involved in the Syrian civil war sought to gain favor with both Damascus and Moscow; both governments saw benefits in winning this war together. Its win also signified Moscow’s ability to support and expand upon Assad regime military power. Russia became embroiled in a major conflict beyond its “near abroad” for the first time after the Cold War ended. Russia has also shown great confidence by having exclusive access to Tartus Port on Syria’s Mediterranean coast and being influential over Hmeimim Airbase close to Latakia in western Syria.
By 2022, Russia and China had formed closer ties. Following Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine, Beijing began voting consistently with Russia at the United Nations Security Council veto power votes more frequently. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan increasingly criticized Syria for failing to negotiate and reconcile with Turkey, while Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had long supported Assad and his regime, condemned their inability to reach an acceptable compromise. Fall of Assad: HTS Rebels Reshape Syria’s Future – Agha Zuhaib Khan
By 2018, most outside observers concluded that the warring parties and managers had successfully waged and controlled Syria’s civil war. Allies and foes alike of Assad declared him victorious even as its edges began fraying further and further apart. Israel’s military offensive in Lebanon and attacks against Iran during this summer of 2024 have severely undermined Iran and Hezbollah, two staunch allies of Assad’s. Israel had managed to not only attack Hezbollah’s top levels but also degrade their large arsenal of Iranian missiles and rockets.
Israel continued to target Iranian weapons shipments to Hezbollah inside Syria despite an agreement between Israel and Lebanon on November 27th to cease fire. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan grew increasingly frustrated with Syria’s failure to negotiate and reconcile with Turkey, while Russian President Vladimir Putin, a longtime supporter of Assad and his regime, expressed frustration over their inability to reach an acceptable compromise.
At the same time, HTS had transitioned from its role as an al Qaeda affiliate to become its Syrian affiliate and ultimately an Islamist group focusing on combatting Assad regime instead of transnational jihadism. While adapting to its times, the group had formed alliances with multiple factions and moderated its rhetoric to gain Turkey’s protection and establish an elected civilian government within Idlib while remaining under an iron grip. Since 2011, rebels have not wavered from their primary goal – that of overthrowing Assad – which has not changed over time. At the beginning of November, talks between Damascus and Ankara regarding conditions that would allow Syrian refugees living in Turkey to return safely and without persecution — a major priority for Turkey — broke down due to Assad’s stubbornness; an event which may have caused Erdogan’s government not to stand in the way when HTS decided to disband from Idlib just weeks later.
HTS predicted that poorly trained, underpaid, demoralized and underfunded Syrian army troops would only provide minimal resistance – they proved accurate as many disintegrated. Attracted by HTS’ rapid development and its cause in Daraa and Sweida located in southern Syria, local residents took to the streets in forceful ways, pushing this regime out at their own initiative.
Impact of Assad’s Fall: Middle Eastern Stability at Stake
Unsurprising yet equally surprising was Assad’s international collapse. On December 6, Russia withdrew their diplomats and troops, closing its bases, while Iran withdrew its affiliated militias realizing fighting Assad is no longer worth its while. In the eastern region, majority Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Arab-led military councils made deals with regime forces to take control of areas held by Deir ez-Zor and secure Albu Kamal crossing with Iraq – cutting supply lines between Iran and Iraq for the regime and cutoff rebel movements from reaching Damascus; Russian, Iranian and regime troops left their positions as well. Fall of Assad: HTS Rebels Reshape Syria’s Future – Agha Zuhaib Khan
Syria, and the region as a whole, face numerous uncertainties regarding their futures. There have been ongoing clashes between Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) militants in northern Syria and predominantly Kurdish SDF fighters based in Idlib. As most Syrians rejoice over Turkey’s withdrawal, including those returning home to Lebanon or Turkey from exiled areas in Afrin and other northern locations such as Erbil, their fate may not be so certain. SDF Director General Mazloum Abdi recently stated that his administration was content with the downfall of Assad regime and coordination between HTS and SDF; however, Kurds as well as Turkey must find an amicable resolution that doesn’t trigger further violence within and outside Syria – a daunting challenge in today’s volatile atmosphere.
Islamic State fighters remain imprisoned in prisons under SDF control in the northeast, where their cells could resurface as threats against any post-Assad regime and for all of the region. Israeli forces have already invaded the demilitarized zone along the border between Syria and Lebanon and continue to attack weapons depots as well as suspected sites for producing chemical weapons. Turkish has come out ahead in this battle as Russia retreats, suffering significant losses as they flee back home. Iran appears most affected due to their “forward defense” strategy which puts them vulnerable against an Israeli strike against their nuclear program.
Within this shifting balance of external forces, Syrians will likely engage in a struggle for control of power within their own nation. HTS, designated a terrorist group by the U.S. but widely popular in Idlib is one such faction fighting for dominance within Syria. So far, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has taken care to adopt an approach which is conciliatory, not only with Syria’s various minorities, but also former officials of the regime.
Question is whether this stance will remain, and whether other groups of insurgents and opposition parties follow his lead. As more Syrians return home – including opposition leaders – tensions will unavoidably arise. Some may find their homes ransacked or new families living within. Armed groups in Syria could vie for power with each other while HTS appears to be adopting an inclusive model for governance at a local level that includes minorities as well as those who never lived under opposition control.
Rebel attacks could arise as a result of external dynamics extending far beyond Syria’s borders, including Hezbollah’s demise and diminishing relations with Ankara and Damascus, along with Damascus’s crumbling position relative to Ankara and Damascus. Conversely, President Assad’s departure will have far-reaching repercussions that have the potential to destabilise much more than just Syria’s borders. International and regional actors must urgently support Syrians in restoring order, creating an elected civilian government, promoting reconciliation among transitioning populations, and rebuilding the nation’s destroyed infrastructure.
The United States and its Western allies long ignored Syria and deemed it inflexible under President Bashar Assad, but recent developments have revealed otherwise. Due to decades of economic and international sanctions, there remains the possibility that civil war will resume and further destabilise the region. This must not be ignored. Western nations and Gulf Arab states should endeavor to avoid another tragedy by reaching out to Damascus’ current regime and helping it move toward more pragmatic governance that does not necessitate democracy. Since the House of Assad fell, Syrian citizens have regained hope and now demand accountability from the nations that allowed Syria’s suffering to persist for years.. Fall of Assad: HTS Rebels Reshape Syria’s Future – Agha Zuhaib Khan.
Written By Agha Zuhaib Khan