India-Pakistan Water Conflict Escalates: Indus Waters Treaty Suspended After Pahalgam Attack – What It Means for Regional Stability
Indus Waters Treaty in Crisis: India’s Suspension and Pakistan’s Existential Challenge By Agha Zuhaib Khan.
Following the partition of British India in 1947, a Standstill Agreement initially preserved the water flow from India to Pakistan. However, this accord lapsed on April 1, 1948, after which India abruptly cut off water supply to canals serving Pakistan—an act seen as a clear breach of international norms and a troubling precedent of upper riparian dominance. A temporary resolution emerged with the Inter-Dominion Accord on May 4, 1948, reinstating the water flow in exchange for annual payments from Pakistan. Yet, the underlying conflict over water remained unresolved.
How the Treaty Came to Be
Intense negotiations resumed only in 1951, largely due to mediation efforts by David E. Lilienthal, the former Chairman of the Tennessee Valley Authority and later associated with the World Bank. After nearly a decade of deliberations, the Indus Waters Treaty was signed on September 19, 1960, by Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Ayub Khan, with the World Bank serving as guarantor.
Terms of the Indus Waters Treaty
This landmark treaty divided the Indus River system: Pakistan received rights over the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—while India was allotted the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Remarkably, the treaty has endured for over six decades, surviving wars, diplomatic setbacks, and regional turmoil. Despite controversial projects like India’s Kishanganga Dam and Ratle Hydroelectric Plant in Indian-administered Kashmir, both opposed by Pakistan, neither country exited the agreement.
India’s Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty in 2025
However, the situation took a critical turn on April 24, 2025, when India notified Pakistan of its intention to suspend the treaty. This came just 48 hours after an alleged attack in Pahalgam, for which India provided no concrete evidence linking Pakistan. The timing and swift response suggest a pre-planned strategy rather than a spontaneous reaction—raising serious concerns about the intent behind India’s move.
Implications of Water Disruption for Pakistan
For Pakistan, the implications are existential. The Indus River system is the backbone of its water supply, vital for agriculture, urban life, energy, and industry. It sustains nearly 80% of the country’s renewable freshwater resources and powers key hydroelectric projects. Yet Pakistan’s limited water storage capacity, coupled with climate-induced challenges like glacier melt and erratic weather, has left it extremely vulnerable. Indus Waters Treaty in Crisis: India’s Suspension and Pakistan’s Existential Challenge By Agha Zuhaib Khan
Is India’s Move an Act of Aggression?
In light of this, India’s unilateral disruption of water flow cannot be viewed as anything less than an act of aggression. No sovereign nation can idly watch its population face starvation or water scarcity. Equally disturbing is the speed of India’s decision-making—an action of such gravity executed without investigation, hinting at a long-standing plan awaiting justification.
Neelum–Jhelum Hydropower Attack: A Red Line Crossed
The situation escalated further with the May 6, 2025, attack on Pakistan’s Neelum–Jhelum Hydropower Plant, a major civilian energy infrastructure. Such acts not only violate international law but also endanger countless lives and destabilize regional peace. Pakistan, under international law, is justified in defending its critical assets through measured and proportionate means.
Pakistan’s Strategic Response to Treaty Violation
Pakistan must act decisively, unified and urgent in its response. Firstly, it should immediately engage international platforms—such as the UN, the World Bank, the ICJ, and the Permanent Court of Arbitration—to highlight treaty violations. Secondly, it must dispatch high-level envoys to key global capitals to build diplomatic momentum and international awareness. Thirdly, a comprehensive media outreach is essential to reveal the broader risks of India’s actions. If all peaceful avenues fail, Pakistan is preparing to protect its lifelines by every necessary means. Survival is non-negotiable.
Global Stakes: A Call to International Action
India must understand that a single rash decision could trigger irreversible fallout. The global community must not remain passive; failure to act would render it complicit in any escalation. This is not just a bilateral dispute—it’s a direct threat to international peace, sovereignty, and human life. Dialogue remains the only viable path forward—whether between individuals or nations.
Conclusion: Water, Rights, and Regional Resilience
At its core, this isn’t just a conflict over rivers. It’s about rights, resilience, and survival. The time to act is not in the future—it’s now.
Indus Waters Treaty in Crisis: India’s Suspension and Pakistan’s Existential Challenge By Agha Zuhaib Khan.