Putin-Kim Summit: Geopolitics Ramifications By Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
PRESIDENT Vladimir Putin has been struggling to erase the impression of the Russian Federation’s isolation in contemporary global geopolitics. Besides, he engages like-minded leaders to improve bilateral cooperation and pose a politico-strategic challenge to the United States Western and Asian allies. Last month, he visited North Korea to further strengthen bilateral ties and signal Moscow’s strategic footprints in the Korean Peninsula. Traditionally, the main pillars of the Moscow-Pyongyang relationship have been ideological affinity, mutual trust, defense ties, Russian economic assistance and Western resentment. North Korea’s geopolitical position and military capabilities are essential for Putin’s grand strategy, i.e., strengthening Russia’s eastern flank in the contemporary transforming global strategic environment.
North Korea shares a border with Russia and a railway bridge that facilitates rail transport at the shared border. During the June summit, Putin and Chairman Kim Jong Un agreed to build a road bridge over the Tumen River to expand trade between the two countries. However, road and railway connectivity would be used as a transportation route for military supplies between Russia and North Korea during times of crisis.
President Putin and Chairman Kim signed a ‘Treaty on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership ‘at the Kumsusan Guesthouse in Pyongyang on June 19, 2024. It aims at “developing a permanent partnership based on the principles of mutual respect for national sovereignty, non-aggression on territory, non-interference in internal affairs and equality, as well as other international legal principles.”Putin said, “This is a truly breakthrough document, reflecting the two countries’ desire not to rest on their laurels but to raise our relations to a new qualitative level.” He added, “The comprehensive partnership agreement signed today provides, among other things, for mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to this agreement.”
The understanding to cooperate or assist each other during a war could be disturbing for Japan and South Korea, the two countries that Putin had treated as more important than North Korea during the last two decades. Moreover, the Treaty underlines both countries’ resolve to “actively cooperate in building a just and multi-polar new world order.” Notably, the Treaty reveals that Russia will not cooperate with the United States in the United Nations Security Council to limit North Korea’s nuclear weapons program by imposing sanctions. On March 28, 2024, Russia vetoed the United Nations Security Council resolution, reauthorizing an independent panel of experts to monitor North Korean sanctions compliance.
Currently, North Korea has been supplying Russia with arms (artillery ammunition and short-range rockets) for its war in Ukraine. According to reports, “North Korea has dispatched an estimated total of 6,700 containers of ammunition by sea and by railway since 2023.”Kim stated, “We will further strengthen strategic communication with Russia.” In reciprocity, Kim expects political, economic, diplomatic, and military technological assistance to modernize the North Korean defense industry. North Korea is already receiving cheap oil from Russia and technological aid. In September 2023, at the Vostochny Cosmodrome meeting, Kim discussed with Putin assistance in the space realm to advance North Korea’s reconnaissance satellite and missile (intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles) programs.
Russia and North Korea’s military-technical cooperation advances the latter’s military capabilities, including drones, tanks, military vehicles, hypersonic missiles, reconnaissance satellites, nuclear-powered submarines, SLBMs, and miniaturized nuclear warheads. Indeed, it multiplies Japan and South Korea’s insecurity. Recently, Pyongyang and Seoul exchanged war threats and resumed hostile activities in the Demilitarized Zone.
The Americans’ desire to sustain and endure the status quo in the international system and the Sino-Russian collaboration for multi-polarity have rejuvenated the alliance’s politics. The U.S. constituted minilateral security groups named QUAD, I2U2, and AUKUS and consolidated existing multilateral and bilateral security arrangements in the Asia-Pacific to contain China’s rise. NATO included Finland and Sweden to consolidate European security further and encircle Russia. The Europeans view the mini-lateral security groups as imperative for their security because Europe’s security affects Asia, and Asia’s security affects Europe.
The extension of NATO enhanced its political significance and strategic manipulation. Finland joined NATO as the 31st member on April 4, 2023, and opened the 1300 km Russian-Final and border for the alliance’s military deployments. Consequently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 contributed to the NATO-ization of Finland, nullifying Putin’s desire for Finlandization of NATO. Hence, Putin is now exploiting other options, i.e. abandoning the West and aiming to bring down the U.S.-led international order—in Putin’s words, “worldwide neo-colonialist dictatorship” by energizing the multi-polar world order and constituting and cementing alliances with likeminded leaders such as President Xi and Chairman Kim.
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NATO has deepened ties with its global partners—most notably in the Asia-Pacific. Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea leaders will attend the alliance’s forthcoming 75th-anniversary summit in Washington. It will be the third time these countries will attend a NATO summit, which justifies Russia-North Korea’s comprehensive strategic partnership. Besides, these developments could encourage Kim to send soldiers to fight in the Russian army—a military version of the guest workers. To conclude, the Ukraine war, the expansion of NATO and mini-lateral strategic groups in the Asia-Pacific have turned Russia towards its dormant ally, North Korea, in the region. Hence, the Putin-Kim summit will have far-reaching strategic ramifications in global geopolitics.
—The writer is professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University.
Email: jaspal_99@hotmail.com
Putin-Kim Summit: Geopolitics Ramifictions By Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Source: https://pakobserver.net/putin-kim-summit-geopolitics-ramifications/