Tensions between Ukraine and Russia are threatening to boil over as Russia has amassed about 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border and diplomatic talks to resolve the standoff have failed thus far. Members of the EU and the US are claiming that Moscow is planning an invasion, however this has been denied by Russian officials.
The crux of the matter is that Russia wants NATO and its allies to ban Ukraine and former Soviet nations from joining the alliance, and has also called on the security alliance to scale back its activities in Eastern Europe. The latter would mean pulling out NATO combat units from Poland and the Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and not deploying missiles in countries such as Poland and Romania.
Essentially, Moscow wants NATO to return to its pre-1997 borders. While the US has said that it would be willing to negotiate over the deployment of missiles and the nature of military exercises in Eastern Europe, there can be no conversation over restricting the eastward expansion of the alliance.
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The expansion of NATO in Russia’s backyard has been a longstanding concern and Moscow is unlikely to budge from its position. From a historical perspective, Russia has maintained that NATO’s expansion in its neighbourhood was a betrayal of promises that were made by the US.
Some are also likening the current situation to the leadup to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. At that point too, Ukraine was increasingly looking to strengthen its ties with Europe and the West. Some US officials have claimed that as per their intelligence, Russia is planning a false-flag operation to justify its invasion of Ukraine.
This should however, be taken with a pinch of salt given how Washington has time and again furthered exaggerated or fabricated claims regarding Russia in the past. Some headway will have to be made soon as the rhetoric continues to escalate.
Moscow has warned the US that it would not exclude the possibility of sending its military assets to Latin America if the US does not halt military activities on Russia’s doorstep. This conflict could very easily spillover into other regions and be very detrimental to an already shaky global order. Crisis de-escalation is of the utmost importance at this point in time.​
Source: Published in The Nation