FEW civil wars in recent times have been as destructive or protracted as the Syria civil war, which is now in its ninth year. It was ignited in early 2011 by the Arab Spring that had brought down long-established dictatorial regimes in Tunisia and Egypt. This gave hope to pro-democracy activists in Syria to launch a struggle against the al-Assad regime in Syria. Hafez al-Assad had seized power in a military coup d’état in 1970. He was an Air Force officer who had helped bring the socialist Ba’ath party to power in 1966. But he set up one-man rule in Syria till his death in 2000, when he was succeeded by his son Bashar who has continued the same repressive rule. The al-Assad family comes from the 10% minority Alawite sect whereas Sunnis constitute 70% of Syria’s population. The two main motives for seeking to overthrow the al-Assad regime are ending dictatorial rule and liberation from Alawite repression. But unfortunately several other countries have got involved in the Syria civil war, resulting in the horrific destruction of the country. Over 465,000 Syrians have been killed in the war and 12 million displaced, constituting more than half of Syria’s population. Large sections of the main Syrian cities have been turned to rubble.
The ground situation after eight years of war is that Bashar al-Assad has survived and even looks like the winner, mainly because of the support given by Iran and Russia.
Hezbollah militants in Lebanon have taken part in the fighting in support of al-Assad. On the other hand, the forces opposing al-Assad received varying degree of support from Saudi Arabia, Gulf States, Turkey and USA. But the Syrian Opposition is divided into various factions, ranging from democrats to Islamist extremists. Al-Qaeda has had a presence in Syria but the extremist group Da’esh at one time controlled large swathes of territory in both Syria and Iraq. However, practically everyone was opposed to Da’esh and after concerted action by the US and others, Da’esh was dispossessed of the territory occupied by it. On this ground, President Trump announced on December 19, 2018 that he was withdrawing 2,000 US troops deployed in Syria, even though he was advised by his own experts, and allies like Britain and France, not to take precipitate action. Many predicted that US withdrawal would allow Da’esh to regroup and would further strengthen the al-Assad regime. The US withdrawal also looked like forsaking Syria’s ethnic Kurds who have been allies in fighting against Da’esh. But by announcing the withdrawal, Trump fulfilled his expressed desire to bring home American forces from messy foreign entanglements.
Iran has played a key role in defending the al-Assad regime. Thousands of Iranian troops and irregular forces have fought alongside the regime forces. The elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps lost over 2,100 soldiers in combat, including several Generals. Iranian-allied militias reportedly include Afghans and Pakistanis. Iran sees the survival of the Syrian regime as crucial to its own security. Syria has been the only consistent ally of Islamic Iranian regime since 1979. It also provides a transit route to Hezbollah. Iran has given substantial economic aid to the Syrian regime. Ali Akbar Velayati, a top Iranian official, has told Syrian media that Iran provides $8 billion a year to Damascus.
Russia has been also a major supporter of the al-Assad regime. For decades, Russia has kept a naval base at Tartus in Syria since the Cold War. Russia sees Syria as its only ally in the Middle East. It has extended diplomatic as well as material support to the al-Assad regime which has helped it to avoid international isolation. In September 2015, Russian Parliament authorized the use of Russian armed forces in Syria. Russian Air Force has helped the al-Assad regime all along. The Russian government is concerned that many Chechens and other Russian Muslims have joined Da’esh in the Syrian civil war.
Turkey has taken a huge burden of Syrian refugees and has also faced terrorism linked to the Syrian war. Many Syrian refugees have used the Turkish route to seek refuge in Europe, creating a serious issue of Muslim immigration in Europe. Turkey has intervened in the Syrian war in important respects. Firstly, it condemned President Bashar al-Assad at the outset of the Arab Spring and helped the creation of Free Syrian Army. Secondly, Turkey is directly engaged in Syria due to its opposition to establishment of an autonomous Kurdish zone close to its borders. It has threatened to use force against the Kurdish zone and fears that its success in Syria could encourage Kurds in Turkey as well. Thirdly, Turkey is officially opposed to the presence of Da’esh and Al-Qaeda in Syria and has cooperated with other countries in seeking to eradicate such groups. But there have also been accusations by many countries including USA and Russia that Turkey has at times supported Islamist groups in Syria. President Bashar al-Assad seems to have survived the worst and his forces are controlling much of Syria. But he remains discredited, particularly due to use of chemical weapons against his opponents. He is likely to remain highly isolated internationally even if the Syrian civil war comes to an end. In strategic terms, Iran has made gains in Syria, much to the dismay of Saudi Arabia as well as USA.
— The writer served as Pakistan’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Soviet Union, France, Nigeria and Libya.
Source: https://pakobserver.net/syrian-civil-war-2/