The European economy, once a bastion of stability and growth, is facing unprecedented challenges as it grapples with the dual pressures of geopolitical upheaval and shifting global alliances. The re-election of Donald Trump as US President, the protracted Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the broader realignment of global power dynamics have left Europe in a precarious position. With economic growth stagnating and inflation lingering, European nations increasingly look eastward to China as a potential lifeline to stabilise their economies.
The second Trump presidency has ushered in a wave of protectionist policies, including tariffs on European goods and a retreat from multilateral institutions. The US-EU trade relationship, once a cornerstone of global commerce, has deteriorated, with tariffs on key European exports such as automobiles and agricultural products. According to the European Commission, EU exports to the U.S. fell by 12 percent in the first half of 2024, costing the bloc an estimated €50 billion in lost revenue.
The combined pressures of Trump’s protectionism, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and global instability have left the bloc vulnerable.
Compounding these challenges is the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, now in its third year. The war has disrupted energy supplies, driven up inflation, and strained public finances across Europe. The European Central Bank (ECB) reports that energy prices remain 30 percent higher than pre-war levels, while GDP growth in the Eurozone has stagnated at just 0.2 percent in Q2 2024. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, narrowly avoided a recession, while Italy and France are grappling with rising debt levels and sluggish growth.
The global political backdrop further exacerbates Europe’s woes. The US-China rivalry has intensified under Trump’s leadership, forcing European nations to navigate a delicate balancing act. Meanwhile, the Global South is increasingly aligning with China through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), leaving Europe isolated in a rapidly changing world order.
Amidst this turmoil, China has emerged as a potential partner for Europe to stabilize its economy. While political differences remain, the economic case for closer EU-China ties is compelling. China is the EU’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching €856 billion in 2023, according to Eurostat. By deepening this relationship, Europe could offset the losses from strained US ties and secure new markets for its exports.
The truth is that Europe’s overreliance on the U.S. market has proven risky. By expanding trade with China, particularly in high-tech and green energy sectors, Europe could diversify its export base. For instance, China’s demand for European machinery and vehicles remains robust, with exports in these sectors growing by 8 percent year-on-year in 2023.
On the other hand, China’s Belt and Road Initiative offers opportunities for European nations to upgrade their infrastructure. Countries like Greece and Portugal have already benefited from Chinese investments in ports and logistics hubs.
Expanding such partnerships could stimulate economic growth and create jobs. Also, China is a global leader in renewable energy technology, producing 70 percent of the world’s solar panels and 50 percent of wind turbines. By collaborating with China, Europe could accelerate its green transition, reducing energy costs and achieving its climate goals.
Finally, the Ukraine conflict has exposed vulnerabilities in Europe’s supply chains, particularly in critical minerals and semiconductors. China, as the world’s largest producer of rare earth metals, could play a key role in securing these resources for Europe.
Critics might argue that while the economic rationale for closer EU-China ties is strong, significant challenges remain. China’s state-driven economic model and human rights record have drawn criticism from European policymakers. What most people might have missed is that recently the Trump administration has withdrawn from the International Human Rights Council of the United Nations sending a worrisome message to the EU.
The overreliance on China could also expose Europe to geopolitical risks, particularly in the event of a US-China conflict. To mitigate these risks, Europe must adopt a balanced approach. This includes diversifying partnerships within the Global South, strengthening its industrial base, and negotiating fair trade agreements with China that address issues like intellectual property rights and market access.
The European economy stands at a crossroads. The combined pressures of Trump’s protectionism, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and global instability have left the bloc vulnerable. By strategically aligning with China, Europe could stabilize its economy and secure new growth opportunities. However, this must be done cautiously, with a clear-eyed assessment of the risks and a commitment to maintaining strategic autonomy.
As the world order continues to shift, Europe’s ability to adapt and forge new alliances will determine its economic future. The time to act for the EU countries is now.
The writer is Foreign Research Associate, Centre of Excellence, China Pakistan Economic Corridor, Islamabad.
Source:https://dailytimes.com.pk/1268442/the-downfall-of-the-european-economy/