A widely read US publication has made some hair-raising claims about the changing contours of global jihad. Foreign Policy magazine in a recent reportage has lifted the lid on emerging international jihadist movements with networks based in India and Central Asia and notes that terrorists from India, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan were now at the forefront of global jihad. The dynamism that the Islamic State group injected into the international jihadist movement, and the long-term repercussions of the networks it built — in particular, the Indian and Central Asian linkages that the group fostered — are already having repercussions beyond the region, the magazine writes.
It points to the threat that emerged most recently with the attack by the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) on Jalalabad prison in early August and says the attack shows the level of ambition that distinguishes the group from many other regional affiliates of the IS. The presence of Central Asians and Indians in transnational attacks, described in the write-up as a relatively new phenomenon, reflects a shifting pattern in jihadism linked to the IS. Some of the deadliest attacks in recent years — the 2019 Easter bombings in Sri Lanka, the attack on a Turkish nightclub on New Year’s Eve 2017 and the 2017 truck attacks in New York City and Stockholm — have links to IS terrorists based in India.
As also pointed out in the FP write-up, India’s history of jihadism goes back even further as the country is the birthplace of a particular sect that is a source of ideas for the Taliban. However, Indian jihadism — as also the Central Asian one — is a story that has historically received too little attention. Emerging from domestic environments that are creating more opportunities for disenfranchisement and radicalisation to take place, they are exactly the sort of threats which may slip under the radar until it is too late.
Rising poverty
The reigning coronavirus pandemic, coupled with the recent locust attacks and the devastating monsoon rains across the country, threaten to drag more and more Pakistanis down the poverty line over the next two years. A recent World Bank report forecasts an ‘anaemic’ economic outlook for Pakistan, with growth rate reaching just 0.5% during the ongoing fiscal year, from the negative 0.38% during FY20 and 1.9% in FY19. The report, titled South Asia Economic Focus, sees bleak prospects of economic recovery all across the region.
The World Bank forecast of half a percentage point economic growth rate for Pakistan is far below the projections made by the Asian Development Bank some three weeks back. While estimating the impact of the coronavirus-induced lockdown on the economic activity in the country, the ADB had forecast a 2% growth rate during the ongoing fiscal year. The ADB forecast coincides with the growth rate expectations that the incumbent government has had, based on the steps it has taken to revive the economic activity in the country.
However, the uncertainty regarding the Covid-19 pandemic that rages on in much of the world, especially in Europe and America, puts the economic projections in doubt. Apprehensions of a surge in the cases of the infection in coming months — which could trigger a new wave of lockdowns, both in Pakistan and globally — may hamper steps aimed at economic recovery, besides further delaying the implementation of critical structural reforms. The economic outlook thus remains murky, as also pointed out in the World Bank report.
To renowned economist Dr Hafeez Pasha, rising inflation is bigger a worry than the falling growth rate. He claims that the rise in food prices amid growing unemployment since the emergence of Covid-19 has pushed another 10% Pakistanis into poverty. Time for the government to be proactive and innovative.
An unhealthy fixation
We in Pakistan have an unhealthy fixation. Especially our authorities. When nothing seems like it’s working right and we find ourselves completely out of ideas, we fall back, almost superstitiously, towards ‘morality’. Forget that morality is relative — for most of us, that concept is an alien one — we almost always fail to consider how counterproductive a path this fixation leads us down.
So it has finally happened. The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority has dropped its ban hammer again — this time on the popular Chinese social media app TikTok. The authority’s reasoning; TikTok failed to remove certain content that ‘a number of public complaints’ deemed immoral. Ironically enough, the move came as the prime minister tried to coax another social media giant, Facebook, into increasing its investment and footprint in Pakistan. Elsewhere, the prime minister also spoke of prioritising ease of business by eliminating ‘unnecessary regulations’. It is almost as if the PTA missed that memo.
If the telecom authority and a certain demographic of our society are rejoicing over this move, they are in for an uncomfortable reality check. History tells us that it is a futile endeavour to try to police ‘immoralities’ and repress what is essentially human nature. As Danzig implied, you cannot keep the young in the dark for life. Here is what will happen though. Pakistan already suffers from a global perception of a volatile market in terms when it comes to government policies. Potential investors in our online sector have not forgotten the YouTube and Facebook bans of the past. The prime minister may dream and cajole all he wants, but the TikTok ban has only crystallised this image. It could take years or even a decade before internet and social media giants consider Pakistan a viable market for investment.
If the prime minister is really serious about revamping and revitalising Pakistan’s online commerce sector, he and his government needs to immediately reassess the philosophy that currently guides the PTA. At present, the authority walks a path that is completely out of step with the rest of the world and out of touch with the needs of our time.
