The remittance bonanza continues – for a 10th consecutive month. The money sent home every month by the Pakistani expat community has been in excess of two billion dollars right through the period between June 2020 and March 2021. The total amount remitted from abroad in the first nine months of the ongoing fiscal year is $21.5 billion as compared to $17 billion in the same period during the previous fiscal year – thus showing a mammoth accumulative growth of $4.5 billion or 26.2%. The latest, March 2021 figure – $2.72 billion – is 20% higher month on month and 43% higher year on year.
The monthly average of the amount remitted in the first nine months of this fiscal is $2.38 billion as compared to $1.88 billion in the corresponding period the previous fiscal. This rise of $500 million or so a month in the volume of remittances roughly makes $6 billion a year – a figure that equals the amount received from the IMF under its bailout package for Pakistan. The accumulative annual receipts from the overseas Pakistani community alone outnumber what the country earns under the heads of exports and FDI together.
The remittances from abroad have long been a big support for our country which is awfully desperate for foreign exchange, but the last 10 months have been worth celebrating. No wonder Prime Minister Imran Khan is extremely happy and has once again thanked the overseas Pakistanis in a tweet saying that their “love and commitment” is “unparalleled”. Finance Minister Hammad Azhar has also taken to Twitter to share the news with the countrymen.
While this continuous rise has much to do with Covid-related travel restrictions that have driven increased inflows through legal channels, the SBP must also be credited in the context for its proactive policy steps – like the Roshan Digital Account – that motivated the overseas Pakistanis to use formal channels for funds transfer. Besides, FATF-related pressures may have also contributed to the rise in the volume of remittances, according to experts.
There are, however, concerns that the remittance bonanza may not continue once things get back to pre-Covid normal. While status quo bias may be expected to work in our favour, the government and the central bank must take steps in the shape of motivational offers for the expat community so that they continue to use legal channels for money transfer.
Ramazan and raging virus
Just about the start of the holy month of Ramazan, Pakistan has witnessed its deadliest coronavirus days since the June 2020 peak: as many as 135 coronavirus deaths have been recorded across the country over the last 24 hours. A day before that, the country had reported 118 deaths from the lethal infection. According to NCOC, 153 and 148 deaths had been reported respectively on June 20 and 21 last year – the highest Covid-19 death toll in the country so far.
Also, at least 4,503 new cases were detected – slightly less than the past few days when the number of cases exceed 5,000, but well above the dip between late February and mid-March when the infected patients were in the vicinity of one thousand. The country is also at risk of running out of ventilators and even oxygen supply in several areas if the number of active infections continues to increase. The number has quadrupled in the last month. Punjab has been the worst suffer in the entire country where the UK strain of the virus has spread thick and fast, and daily Covid-positive cases in cities like Lahore, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Rawalpindi, Multan, etc have risen to record levels.
The trend is worrying, as the holy month of fasting has always been marked by people congregating for various reasons. While some are entirely avoidable, such as large sehri and iftar gatherings, others such as shopping for food and other supplies in the afternoon and evening and Taraweeh prayers are less so. The federal government did recently announce a 20-point list of precautions meant to be observed in mosques and imambargahs. However, while the federation and all four provinces are in agreement over the SOPs, it remains to be seen whether mosque administrators and regular citizens willingly follow them, or if the government will even be willing to take on violators, given the sensitivity of the issue. There were serious problems enforcing the SOPs last year, and it is anyone’s guess whether people will be more cautious or callous this time around.
Doctors have been quite blunt about their expectations, with senior Pakistan Medical Association members still urging the government to do more than reissue the plan from last year. Some have even gone as far as calling for closing mosques entirely and broader lockdowns. While that is unlikely to happen, their cause for concern is legitimate.
Meanwhile, vaccination prevalence is minuscule, and vaccine supplies remain scarce in both the public and private sector. A new outbreak, or rather a worsening of the current one, could be catastrophic. Several countries that have been able to vaccinate a good number of their citizens have made strong recommendations that only vaccinated people can go to mosques.
If the government had gotten ahead of the game and actually made an effort to vaccinate its entire population instead of leaving them at the mercy of the invisible hand of the market, we may have actually been able to leverage Ramazan to achieve full vaccination. What excuse would people have to avoid vaccination counters outside mosques?
