Middle East meltdown
Saudi Arabia appears to be walking a thin line to keep its cold war with Iran from boiling over. In a recent TV interview, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman continued to blame Iran for the escalation of tensions in the Middle East but was far more cautious in his suggested response. The reason, in no small part, may well be the September 14 drone and missile attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. Houthi rebels have claimed responsibility for the attacks, which the Saudis and Americans have blamed on Iran. And while the Iranians claim they have nothing to do with the attack, they have also called it an act of “legitimate defence” by the Houthi rebels.
The Saudi crown prince has even gone as far as blaming Iranian “stupidity” for the attacks and claiming there was no strategic goal. But whoever was behind the attacks, they did do real damage, showing the world how vulnerable critical Saudi infrastructure is to strikes from state or non-state actors. Calling for “strong and firm action to deter Iran”, he also admitted that a military confrontation could cause the global economy to collapse. That would be in the interest of both, the Houthis, who have nothing to lose for their impoverished and economically insignificant country, and the Iranians, whose economy is already being punished by American sanctions after the US chose to violate the multilateral nuclear deal.
The US was unwilling to listen to its intelligence assets and European allies when Iran was playing by the rules. The US played dirty by basing its actions on the false evidence and statements of Israeli warmonger and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. If Iran was behind the attacks, it could arguably represent a last-ditch effort to get the world to put pressure on the US and others to negotiate with it from a position of weakness, lest economically sound states get punished for the bumbling actions of hawks in the Trump administration and its allies.
Divided and confused
Maulana Fazlur Rehman can bear the government no more. His JUI-F is on its mark and all set to go. But the PML-N and the PPP — the two main opposition parties — want to wait for the right time to hit the streets and send the PTI government packing. The JUI-F chief, being a seasoned politician, is also aware of the political compulsions of the two parties in view of the incarceration of their top leadership. And with rumours of behind-the-scenes engagement for a deal rife, the Maulana has all the reasons to exercise caution in dealing with the two parties. The Maulana, therefore, may not want to delay his anti-government action — planned for this month — lest a deal at a later stage could affect its build-up.
Unity, thus, eludes the opposition, and confusion prevails within its ranks — much to the satisfaction of the government. However, this is not the first time that the opposition has failed to forge unity of action. Go back to the time when the PTI and allies had taken up the reins of the government in the wake of the July 25, 2018 elections. No less than 11 parties had joined forces in what was dubbed as the strongest opposition in the history of the country. But the so-called grand alliance turned out to be a non-starter. To start with, the opposition could not agree on a joint candidate to run against Imran Khan for the post of Prime Minister, mainly because the PPP had objection to the candidature of Shehbaz Sharif. And when, just days later, the two major opposition parties went their separate ways to elect the President, it was clear that there could be no such thing as combined opposition.
A year on now, there is unanimity of thought between the PML-N and the PPP as both believe the iron is not hot enough to strike. But for the JUI-F, the time for the anti-government action is ripe. While the JUI-F does not mind going solo, the other two seek to avoid a unilateral action. It will be interesting to see which way the wind blows.