Diplomatic win for Pakistan
The UNSC decision to take up the issue of Kashmir and initiate a debate on the latest developments there is a major breakthrough for the diplomatic maneuverings that Pakistan had initiated immediately after India changed the constitutional status of the disputed region on August 5.
Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, in a letter to the UNSC President, had on Tuesday requested a special meeting to be convened to discuss the Indian actions as well as the ongoing human rights violations in occupied Kashmir. In a tacit reminder of the possible fallout of the Indian actions, Qureshi had conveyed that “Pakistan will not provoke a conflict. But India should not mistake our restraint for weakness. If India chooses to resort again to the use of force, Pakistan will be obliged to respond, in self-defence, with all its capabilities.”
The UNSC may take up the issue today (August 16) under agenda item ‘Pakistan-India question’. Apparently, the decision was taken after China supported Pakistan’s request, suggesting that the issue is discussed behind closed doors. Last Friday, Qureshi had air-dashed to Beijing and had hours-long deliberations with the Chinese leadership seeking their support for Pakistan’s stance. Beijing had already expressed its annoyance over the Indian move to alter the status of Ladakh.
It is not known what position other permanent members of the Security Council, especially the US, will take when the ‘Pakistan-India question’ is taken up for discussion. The Russian representative at the UN said that his country had no objection to the Security Council meeting. But in a conversation with Qureshi, his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, is reported to have “emphasised the need to de-escalate tensions and to have no alternative to resolving differences between Pakistan and India on a bilateral basis by political and diplomatic means.”
Whatever the outcome of today’s meeting, it is indeed a victory for Islamabad to have succeeded in its diplomatic maneuverings for bringing back the Kashmir issue to the Security Council and for making the world realise that it is an international issue with a potential to put the regional and world peace in danger and to lead to a much greater catastrophe.
SBP’s optimism
The SBP governor sees the country heading in the right direction economy-wise. Reza Baqir, the governor, insists that consistency in the government approach and continuity of the economic policies being pursued will “definitely lead [Pakistan] to the destiny of progress and prosperity”. The SBP chief’s optimism fits well into a speech delivered at an Independence Day anniversary event on Wednesday, especially his belief that “if we acted with unity and faith like we did at the time of Pakistan movement, the prevailing conditions would surely change.” However, numbers are purely objective in nature, and the numbers concerning key economic indicators do not augur too well.
To recall, Pakistan signed a $6 billion worth of economic bailout package with the IMF in May, and the loan programme binds the government to undertake structural reforms which have so far resulted in an increase in the key interest rate to an eight-year high of 13.25% as of July; depreciation of the rupee by 32% to Rs160 to the dollar; and a repeated upward revision in power and gas tariffs, a consistent raise in fuel prices as part of monthly review, and new tax mechanism for traders and businessmen in order to make an ambitious Rs5.55 trillion tax-collection target for the current fiscal year possible.
The reform programme, as it is called, has so far managed to narrow down the historically high current account deficit and has helped the inflow of significantly higher remittances from overseas Pakistanis in July, but it has also brought the economic growth rate to a nine-year low of 3.3% in the fiscal year ending on June 30, 2019 and turned inflation into a double-digit demon — 10.3% as of July — after a long gap of 68 months. This double impact — of the fall in growth rate and the rise in inflation — has literally squeezed the masses dry, and they are desperately waiting for the SBP chief’s optimism to come true and the “right” decisions taken by our economic managers to start bearing fruit.