TWO suicide attacks one each in Kabul and Kunar Provinces of Afghanistan and prompt claiming of responsibility by the Taliban could be another conspiracy to derail the upcoming direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. May be someone else is acting as Taliban. Afghan conflict often throws up events that remain shrouded in mystery. Former DG FIA Tariq Khosa in his recent piece in a leading Pakistani newspaper, on February 22, titled “Power of the establishment”, has summed up some of the tumultuous happenings of yester years linked to the Afghan conflict. He revisits whisking away of Osama Bin Laden by Americans from Abbottabad, Raymond Davis saga, the Memo gate and briefly touches on the mystery that still surround these. He writes: “Nothing intrigues me more than the power of our security establishment.
The establishment has acquired the art of turning its strategic follies to triumphs. It is this deep state that has curtailed and trimmed democracy, ensuring the country stays rigged in favour of a small but self-aggrandising elite. And until that changes, democracy in Pakistan will remain imperilled”. Interestingly he also tends to take credit for his act of shying away from national duty: “The Registrar (Supreme Court) called me during the proceedings to say the court was considering my name as independent investigator in the Memo case… I received a court order on Dec 2 seeking my consent with respect to performing national duty as head of the commission”. Memo gate smacked of intrigue. I responded immediately and expressed my inability to undertake the assignment as head of the Memo Commission”. Instead of calling the shots on establishment, Mr Khosa should have agreed to investigate the Memo gate and brought truth before the nation. It is not fair to shy away when a demanding task is assigned and then years later come up with fairy tale narratives. To put an end to such speculative narratives, the Federal government should consider making public the findings of Abbottabad Commission report.
Disruption of second round of Murree peace process in July 2015 was a strategic setback for the Afghan peace process. Eversince, Pakistan has been doing its best to bring together vital nuts and bolts to jumpstart the circus. Hours before representatives of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) were to assemble for the fourth round of talks in Kabul, Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif dashed to Doha and discussed the role of the Afghan Taliban’s office in Doha. His meetings focussed on matters relating to regional security and facilitation of the reconciliation process in Afghanistan by Doha office, through Qatari leadership. Army chief’s visit to Doha was part of Pakistan’s efforts to persuade all Taliban groups to return to the negotiating table.
During the fourth round, the QCG agreed to continue joint endeavours as part of their shared commitments to advance the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan. Now Pakistan is all set to host direct talks between the government in Kabul and Afghan Taliban, including other insurgent groups, by the first week of March. “The QCG member states invite Taliban and other groups to participate through their authorised representatives in the first round of direct peace talks with the Afghan government,” post fourth round QCG communique said. “Pakistan has graciously offered to host this round of talks in Islamabad.
Earlier a two-member Afghan Taliban delegation, led by head of the group’s political office in Qatar, had paid an unannounced visit to Pakistan as part of preparations for the formal resumption of direct talks with the Afghan government. Doha delegates held informal discussions with senior officials of the four countries. They had shared a list of their representatives who would attend the formal talks. This is the first time that Taliban’s Qatar office is taking part in the peace initiative backed by both China and the US. When talks between Afghan Taliban and Afghan government took place under the Murree peace process in July 2015, Taliban’s political office in Qatar had distanced itself from the process.
Pakistan is deeply interested in speedy resolution of the Afghan crisis. More delay in resumption of direct dialogue and attaching of pre-conditions could shake confidence of all those who want an end to the conflict. Unlike the previous round of talks, this time all Taliban groups are being pursued to come to the negotiating table. Taliban’s splinter group, headed by Mullah Muhammad Rasool Akhund, has also been invited to join the negotiation process. In another major breakthrough, participation of former Afghan Prime Minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hizb-e-Islami in the peace process also appears certain.
As the resumption of peace process is round the corner, confusing signals continue pouring in from Kabul as to its genuine commitment to the success of the peace process. Though Afghanistan’s ambassador to Pakistan Dr Omar Zakhiwal has stated that his government is committed to the quadrilateral peace process, ground realities speak otherwise as some circles from within Kabul are trying to attach pre-conditions to the talks. Moreover, former President Hamid Karzai wants India to be added to QCG; and reportedly the US and India are discussing the ways and means to deploy some Indian troops in Afghanistan. While Americans are pondering over a figure of 3-4000 personnel for guarding the ongoing development projects, in his over enthusiasm, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has offered readiness to deploy around 30,000 soldiers. Pakistan has already conveyed to Kabul that any additional deployment of Indian troops in Afghanistan would be taken as crossing of redlines. Presently, 500 Indian military personnel are in Afghanistan, ostensibly to protect Indian embassy and consulates.
This type of environment is quite intriguing. Afghanistan should have been keen for restoration of peace and tranquillity in the country that has suffered so much and for so long because of turbulence and turmoil triggered by a host of factors. Earlier, Afghanistan and some of its friends in the West had been complaining that peace process was not moving ahead because of lack of required support by Pakistan. However, over the last two years, Pakistan has been making hectic endeavours to help forward movement of peace process. Pakistan’s keenness has been widely acknowledged by the international community. Pakistan is deeply interested in speedy resolution of the Afghan crisis as unending conflict has badly damaged it in different ways including missed economic opportunities, deteriorating security situation and continued presence of millions of Afghan refugees that are adding to the socio-economic problems of the country.
In the presence of strong anti-dialogue lobby in Kabul and existence of fragile fault lines, one could neither be sure about continuity and sustainability of the peace process nor could accurately guess the timeframe for reaching an agreement. Though it would be an ideal CBM to announce a ceasefire as soon as possible, keeping in view the stronger combat worthiness of Taliban in the peripheries of urban centres and the approaching spring fighting season, one may have to wait for quite some time for such announcement without adequate political quid pro quo from the Afghan government. Time is on Taliban’s side. Unless President Ashraf Ghani demonstrates political will by putting forward a credible power sharing formula, attractive enough to woo the Taliban side. While it is encouraging to see the Afghan government and Taliban talking directly, Afghans have a poor track record of reaching mutually acceptable truces; and still poorer showing with respect to implementing such agreements. Therefore, while the two sides may appear talking keenly, the burden of heavy lifting like “what to talk” and “how to talk” will fall on the QCC.
— The writer is consultant to IPRI on Policy and Strategic Response.