Nuclear Pakistan Guarantees Economic Stability | Muhammad Saeed

There have been perpetual terrorization from India and its strategic allies at global arena through relentless use of soft and hard powers to pressurize Pakistan on many accounts primarily to cap its nuclear weapons programme in addition to many other purposes including enabling India to block China, purportedly a country that augments Pakistan’s nuclear and economic capacity, from emerging as a potential power in the face of a monopole privilege. Indian involvement in supporting anti Pakistan forces usually are sheltered under the umbrella of political, religious, nationalist and civil society dispensations augmented by certain International Non Governmental Organizations. Successful efforts of Pakistan’s security structure under the legal protection of representative government, in all types of troubled areas to include terror hit Tribal areas and prolifically polarized economic nerve centers like Karachi, have ignited unprecedented anxiety within American led west and Indian ranks, due to fear of failure of their long term strategic maneuvering to denuclearize Pakistan.

The other day Pakistan’s envoy to UN not only made it clear to the intimidators that Pakistan is relentless to root out terrorism, whosoever its sponsors, external or internal but will also respond forcefully to those who make efforts to either attack or destabilize Pakistan on any pretext. Direct military intervention into the Myanmar in line with the self coined ‘hot pursuit’ by Indian forces was one of the paradigms of India’s future intentions aimed at Pakistan on the behest of global players. Such a muscle-flexing against a country like Myanmar, Nepal or Bhutan living in silos for obvious reasons may be possible but would prove disastrous and will certainly destined to badly backfire against Pakistan, for many reasons including lack of international sanctity or legal justification and above all in the presence of nuclear equation between both the countries. Although global powers would hardly lose anything if two countries go into nuclear war, rather South Asia will suffer to enable America continue its multilateral supremacy over the world.

Indian responses of continuous denying to ensuing geopolitical situations, like not realizing the importance of resolution of Kashmir issue in a milieu where Pakistan is a nuclear power while China and Russia are stepping forward to support Pakistan in its economic progression endeavours, have potentials to ignite a nuclear stand off. And above all, Indian denying of any difference between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons and adhering to a policy of massive retaliation, has further complicated efforts of attainment of peace and progress of this region. Overreactions and stage-managing of unconventional mechanisms to destabilize Pakistan would certainly breed concerns over the possibility of nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan. Furthermore, an already beaten phenomenon of the strong presence of terrorist groups in Pakistan and country’s alleged reluctance to take effective action against them, despite the fact that all types of terrorist are already trampled, would also give birth to a nuclear crisis between India and Pakistan. Some degree of criticism with regard to quid pro quos may naturally be expected, but the inflexibility of India in cahoots with global powers especially America that has already made a civil nuclear deal, would cause further apprehensions for realization of regional peace and security.

All the factors of unfounded concerns such as challenges of religious extremism, terrorism, overall internal security situation, effective security measures of control over the nuclear weapons programme and political as well as economic instability have already been addressed by Pakistan hence attained the status of anormal nuclear weapon state like any member of nuclear club. There are hardly any week-links left unattended with regard to Pakistan’s economic and security paradigms hence it would be criminal on the part of India and its supporters to underestimate the strengths of country and use oblique tools to destabilize Pakistan.

In the wake of such a positively emerging atmosphere, the international community, led by the US, must develop a strong case to persuade India to cap its nuclear weapons programme, in order to dissuade a weapons race and nuclear proliferation to ensure peace. The prospects for success of

nonproliferation and arms control objectives would be positive if the goals are modest provided the strategy of quid-pro-quo is applied. The Indo-US nuclear deal, Pakistan’s leverage of its role in the war against terrorism particularly in Afghanistan, Indian reluctance to diplomatically engage Pakistan in the wake of 2008 Mumbai attacks and possible Indian refusal to address the issues that concern Pakistan like the Indian ballistic missile defence program (BMD) and the Cold Start strategy are some important factors that will pose a tough challenge to the international community and the US to singularly persuade Pakistan towards nuclear moderation. Two countries’ obsession with each other also makes it rigid in their foreign and security policymaking, especially the Indo-US nuclear deal has been received by Pakistan not only as discriminatory but also as a negative development for its nuclear deterrence capability. The acquisition of nuclear weapons by both states has in reality stabilized the region simply because any war between the two countries would be catastrophic possibilities.

Christine C. Fair, a shrewd scholar who claims to specialize in South Asia, has tabulated the Correlates of War (COW) Militarized Interstate Disputes (MID) data, concluding that the rate of conflict between India and Pakistan increased as the nuclear level of Pakistan proceeded from “Nonnuclear period” through “Incipient nuclear period” to “De facto nuclear period” and full-fledged post-test “Nuclear period.” According to Christine Fair, who has a visible animosity towards Pakistan and a friendly posture towards India, for two of those four periods, incipient nuclear period and nuclear period, the US provided considerable military and economic aidto both the countries, leading to conclude that American support may have emboldened Pakistan further to pursue its revisionist agenda.

Indian declared posture of defensive offensive in other words potential preemptive strikes inside Pakistani territory, a blatant threat of attack, is regrettably falling on deaf ears of American led powers instead Pakistan is asked to review its nuclear policy terming it as a threat to civilized world. Indian threats and associating nuclear weapons with terrorism is likely sign of India not also hesitating to hand over certain engineered nuclear weapons to terror groups or secessionist elements it supports in Pakistan and Afghanistan, for use against its

own population or alternately some western scapegoat state. This option would be catastrophic for India as well as its well-wishers because Pakistan has already rooted out terrorists from its soil and will continue to do so in future, as reflected by Dr. Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistani envoy to UNSC. Indian past efforts of choreographing Mehran base type incidents to show up strengths of non state actors and accentuate on weakness of state apparatus have already failed.

Nuclear Pakistan Guarantees Economic Stability


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